Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US bombings would be an "event of extreme global geopolitical and economic gravity." Below, I explain what this means and its implications:
🔥 What is the Strait of Hormuz?
It is a "strategic maritime passage" located between Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, connecting the "Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean." The following transit through it:
* 🚢 "Around 20% of the world's oil" (about 17 million barrels per day).
* 🛢️ Key liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
* 🌍 Energy trade vital to Asia, Europe, and the United States.
⚠️ What does it mean for Iran to shut it down?
1. Immediate global economic impact:
* Drastic increase in the price of oil (may exceed $150 per barrel).
* Financial markets plunge due to fears of a global recession.
* Global inflation due to rising fuel and transportation prices.
2. Regional or global military conflict:
* The US and its allies (such as the UK and Saudi Arabia) would likely respond militarily.
* Possible intervention by other powers such as China or Russia.
* Escalation of war in the Middle East: attacks on refineries, oil tankers, critical infrastructure.
3. International naval blockade:
* The US could try to reopen the crossing by force.
* Naval clashes between Iranian and Western forces.
* Freedom of international navigation is at stake.
4. Social and political effects:
* Protests over fuel price increases.
* Humanitarian crisis if oil and food are scarce.
* Increased nationalism and polarization.
🧠 In summary:
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US bombing would be "an act of economic and military warfare" with global consequences. It is one of the most feared scenarios by international security and energy analysts.
If this event is confirmed, it could mark the beginning of an escalation of warfare that could lead to a "large-scale regional conflict or even a Third World War," depending on how the powers involved react.
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