📊 USA Cripto & Stocks
A decisive week has arrived for global markets. "JP Morgan has warned that a large Fed rate cut on September 17" could trigger massive liquidity flows out of U.S. bank reserves —estimated in the trillions— into higher-risk assets such as U.S. equities and Bitcoin.
U.S. "money market funds have surpassed $7 trillion", a historic figure that could shift quickly if “safe” yields fall below 4%. This scenario would push investors to rotate cash into riskier markets seeking higher returns.
For now, Wall Street futures remain muted: the Dow Jones is down -0.59%, the S&P 500 slightly off -0.05%, and the Nasdaq up 0.44%. Gold and oil dipped modestly, while "Bitcoin shows small gains", anticipating potential inflows from greater liquidity.
What to expect for stocks and crypto?
• Stocks: A “sell the news” event remains a risk. An expected cut could spark short-term selling before any rebound, depending on subsequent macro data.
• Bitcoin and crypto: Historically, rate cuts improve liquidity and fuel flows into alternative assets. While near-term volatility is likely, analysts see Q4 as potentially bullish for the crypto market.
• Hedging strategies: JP Morgan suggests volatility options (VIX) and gold exposure to mitigate risks.
Bottom line
The Fed faces a delicate balancing act. A moderate cut could stabilize markets, but a larger move risks unleashing massive flows into risk assets —with "heightened volatility almost guaranteed". Investors should prepare for both outcomes, focusing not just on the September decision but on what it signals about U.S. monetary policy into the close of 2025.
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